Although general revenue collections are increasing year-over-year and total spending by Missouri continues to rise, revenue for the state is down nearly $1 billion from a decade ago, new research finds.

Missouri State Capitol in Jefferson City

Revenue has dropped from $6.13 billion to $5.25 billion, when adjusted for inflation, in the last 10 years, according to research from Missouri Budget Project, a progressive public policy organization.

“This general revenue decline is historic,” Missouri Budget Project writes. “Between 1975 and 2001 Missouri had no years of falling revenue. In the last decade, revenue has dropped in four years.”

Fiscal year 2010 was 9 percent lower than 2009 and more than 13 percent below 2000, when adjusted for inflation, according to the public policy organization.

Missouri Budget Project is estimating Missouri will face a budget shortfall in fiscal 2012, starting on July 1, of $822 million, although revenue is rebounding.

As Missouri Watchdog reported last week, net general revenue collections in Missouri increased 3.6 percent for the fiscal year-to-date, ending Oct. 31, from $2.15 billion last year in the same period to $2.23 billion this year.

Missouri Budget Director Linda Luebbering is estimating a 2012 shortfall of between $500 to $600 million.

As Missouri Watchdog reported last month, total state spending has increased by 13.6 percent from fiscal 2005 to 2009, according to analysis of the state’s Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports, audited each year by the Missouri State Auditor. The report for fiscal year 2010 is expected out by the end of this calendar year.

“The state government in Missouri should view the low revenues as an impetus to reform its expenditures,” said Christine Harbin, an analyst at the Show-Me Institute, a free market think tank. ”By living within its means during the present, the state government will be less likely to create or exacerbate budget problems in the future.”

By Brian R. Hook, brhook@missouriwatchdog.org, (314) 482-7944

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